Skip to content
TR★ Premium

Plzen 1-2 Levski Sofia

Europa League · League phase · MD 3
Plzen
12
Full-timeHT 0-1
Levski Sofia
62'Kabongo
Castro44'Satorno65'
Doosan Aréna, PlzeňReferee Alejandro HernandezThu 22 Oct 2026, 22:00capacity 12,500

Model accuracy

Locked 22 Oct 21:57

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
83%
Clearleague base 70%adjusted to 75% for ranking
✓ correct
Highlight 2
Both teams score: no
58%±6
Notableleague base 51%adjusted to 56% for ranking
✗ missed
Highlight 3
Plzen win
46%±8
Notableleague base 48%calibrated
✗ missed
Match result · PLZ 46% · X 30% · LEV 24%Most likely score 1-0 15%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Plzen
46%±8
Draw
30%±3
Levski Sofia✓
24%±6
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Lig gücü farkı: Czech Liga, First League'den daha güçlü; bu fark iki takımın gol beklentisi dengesini %98 ev sahibi lehine kaydırıyor
  • Levski Sofia savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %75 daha iyi (zaman ağırlıklı gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Levski Sofia hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %62 daha iyi (zaman ağırlıklı gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Plzen hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %45 daha iyi (zaman ağırlıklı gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Plzen'ın gol beklentisini %28 artırıyor (Avrupa kupası maçlarındaki iç saha etkisi)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Estimate history

72 h → kick-off
0255075100-72 h-48 h-24 h-12 hkick-offFinal estimate · lockedLocked · 20:49 · Plzen 47%Locked · 20:52 · Plzen 47%Locked · 21:57 · Plzen 46%
PlzenDrawLevski Sofialine-upsinjuryfinal estimateestimate row
0 hPlzen47% → 46%-1final estimate · locked
0 hLevski Sofia23% → 24%+1final estimate · locked
Live continuation · minute axis

No live estimate rows; one is added every minute during the match.

The record uses the last estimate locked before kick-off; live estimates are not scored.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Predicted scores (top 5)

calibrated · slope 1.00
1-0 15%1-1 13%0-0 12%2-0 10%0-1 9%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals PLZ 1.29 · LEV 0.85

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

slightly overconfident · slope 0.93

Most likely: 2 goals 27%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓64%
  • 3+ goals✓36% ±7
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals17%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.073+ goals: overconfident · slope 0.804+ goals: overconfident · slope 0.68

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

overconfident · slope 0.70

±6 · clean sheet: PLZ 43% · LEV 28%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

model not live
No live estimate for this market yet.

The half-time model was calibrated in backtests; once live, home ahead / level / away ahead probabilities appear here. For now, data:

PLZ 1st-half goals—
LEV 1st-half goals—
Actual HT0-1

Half-time / full-time

model not live
Once live, a 3×3 map of the 9 combinations (Home → Home, Draw → Away …) appears here.

Calibrated in backtests; the release decision is with the model team.

Corners

no model
No corner probabilities are produced.

There is no corner model yet; season data is shown instead.

This match: PLZ 4 · LEV 1

Cards

experimental
Chance of a red card
14%
Yellow card and penalty markets are not live.

The red card probability comes from simulation and has no backtest: it is not scored and never a highlight.

Referee Alejandro Hernandez · no referee history yet.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
Reinaldoexpected 78'18%
C. Kabongoexpected 76'15%
Everton Balaexpected 77'14%
D. Visinskyexpected 76'13%
T. Ladraexpected 76'13%
A. Memicexpected 88'10%
D. Vavroexpected 76'10%
L. Cervexpected 76'8%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

22 October 2026: the UEFA Europa League league phase matchday 3 match ended Plzen 1-2 Levski Sofia. Goals: Francisco Everton Mota de Castro 44', Christopher Kabongo 62', Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno 65'. Match stats: possession Plzen 63%, Levski Sofia 37%; shots on target 2-3; expected goals (xG) 0.97-1.17. The locked pre-match statistical model estimate: Plzen win 46% (80% interval 37%–54%), draw 30%, Levski Sofia win 24%. The outcome call was a miss.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

Plzen · next match
Levski Sofia · next match