Plzen 1-2 Pardubice
Model accuracy
Locked 25 Oct 19:41The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: S. Ďatko 8.0 · A. Memić 7.4 · Merchas Doski 7.3
Match analysis
5 sections23:31Plzen lost to Pardubice 1-2 in the Czech Liga matchday 12 on 25 October 2026.
Read more ›Close
Result and story of the match
It was 0-2 at half-time. Pardubice scored first, in the 22nd minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 22' Victor Samuel → 0-1; 39' Christopher Kabongo (own goal) → 1-1; 49' Amar Memić, assisted by Merchas Doski → 2-1.
Yellow cards: Plzen 1, Pardubice 3.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Plzen 2.70, Pardubice 1.05; shots 28-14 (4-4 on target); possession 62%-38%; corners 5-9.
Plzen created the better chances, but the scoreline did not reflect it.
Goals by half: 0-2 in the first, 1-0 in the second. Shots: 16-8 before the break, 12-6 after it.
Standout players
A. Memić was Plzen's highest-rated player at 7.4 in 69 minutes: 1 goal, 3 shots on target, 1 key pass, won 2 of 2 duels.
S. Ďatko was Pardubice's highest-rated player at 8.0 in 56 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 1 tackle, won 2 of 6 duels.
How the model did
The locked pre-match statistical model estimate: Plzen win 72% (80% interval 67%–78%), draw 17%, Pardubice win 11%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (11%). Expected goals in the model: Plzen 2.17, Pardubice 0.88. Chance of 3+ goals: 57%; both teams to score: 52%.
The model's most likely outcome was Plzen win (72%); the actual result was Pardubice win (11%). The outcome call was a miss. Its most likely score was 2-0 (worth 0 points under our prediction game rules).
Scoring rule: each match is graded on the last estimate locked before kick-off, which cannot be changed afterwards.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Plzen lost to Pardubice 1-2 in the Czech Liga matchday 12 on 25 October 2026. Goals: Victor Samuel 22', Christopher Kabongo 39' (o.g.), Amar Memić 49'. Match stats: possession Plzen 62%, Pardubice 38%; shots on target 4-4; expected goals (xG) 2.70-1.05. The locked pre-match statistical model estimate: Plzen win 72% (80% interval 67%–78%), draw 17%, Pardubice win 11%. The outcome call was a miss.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.