Plzen 1-2 Levski Sofia

22 October 2026: the UEFA Europa League league phase matchday 3 match ended Plzen 1-2 Levski Sofia.

Result and story of the match

It was 0-1 at half-time. Levski Sofia scored first, in the 44th minute.

Goals and key moments

Goals: 44' Francisco Everton Mota de Castro, assisted by Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno → 0-1; 62' Christopher Kabongo, assisted by Cheick Souare → 1-1; 65' Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno, assisted by Maicon Araújo dos Santos → 1-2.

Yellow cards: Plzen 1, Levski Sofia 1.

Statistical comparison

Expected goals (xG) Plzen 0.97, Levski Sofia 1.17; shots 13-6 (2-3 on target); possession 63%-37%; corners 4-1.

Goals by half: 0-1 in the first, 1-1 in the second. Shots: 5-3 before the break, 8-3 after it.

Standout players

C. Kabongo was Plzen's highest-rated player at 7.6 in 77 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 1 tackle, won 3 of 10 duels. Minute markers: tackle ≈10–11', goal ≈64–65', shot on target ≈64–65'.

Reinaldo was Levski Sofia's highest-rated player at 9.0 in 82 minutes: 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 shot on target, 2 key passes, 1 tackle, won 8 of 11 duels. Minute markers: assist ≈45–46', goal ≈66–67', shot on target ≈66–67'.

How the model did

The locked pre-match statistical model estimate: Plzen win 46% (80% interval 37%–54%), draw 30%, Levski Sofia win 24%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Expected goals in the model: Plzen 1.29, Levski Sofia 0.86. Chance of 3+ goals: 36%; both teams to score: 42%.

The model's most likely outcome was Plzen win (46%); the actual result was Levski Sofia win (24%). The outcome call was a miss. Its most likely score was 1-0 (worth 0 points under our prediction game rules).

Scoring rule: each match is graded on the last estimate locked before kick-off, which cannot be changed afterwards.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.