Middlesbrough 1-0 Birmingham
Model accuracy
Match stats
Standouts: J. Ruddy 9.5 · D. Barlaser 7.9 · H. Hackney 7.9
Match analysis
5 sections15:0521 October 2023: the Championship matchday 12 match ended Middlesbrough 1-0 Birmingham.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-0 at half-time. The decisive goals came after the interval. Middlesbrough scored first, in the 88th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 88' M. Rogers, assisted by M. Crooks → 1-0.
Yellow cards: Middlesbrough 3, Birmingham 3.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Middlesbrough 1.63, Birmingham 0.24; shots 17-5 (10-3 on target); possession 60%-40%; corners 12-0; pass accuracy 84%-78%.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 1.39.
Goals by half: 0-0 in the first, 1-0 in the second.
Standout players
D. Barlaser was Middlesbrough's highest-rated player at 7.9 in 76 minutes: 4 key passes, 2 tackles, won 3 of 5 duels.
J. Ruddy was Birmingham's highest-rated player at 9.5 in 90 minutes: 10 saves, won 1 of 2 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Middlesbrough vs Birmingham (Championship matchday 12, 21 October 2023) finished 1-0. Goals: M. Rogers 88'. Match stats: possession Middlesbrough 60%, Birmingham 40%; shots on target 10-3; expected goals (xG) 1.63-0.24.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.