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Danubio 0-0 Defensor Sporting

Primera División · Apertura - 8
Danubio
00
Full-timeHT 0-0
Defensor Sporting
Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo, MontevideoReferee Jose BurgosThu 26 Mar 2026, 22:00capacity 14,401

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
79%
Clearleague base 78%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Level at half-time
47%
Notableleague base 45%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · DAN 31% · X 29% · DEF 40%Predicted score 0-1 · Most likely: 1-1 13% · 0-1 13% · 0-0 11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Danubio
31%±6
Draw✓
29%±2
Defensor Sporting
40%±7
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Defensor Sporting savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %23 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Defensor Sporting hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %10 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Danubio'ın gol beklentisini %8 artırıyor
  • Danubio savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %5 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Danubio hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %1 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 0-1 13%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 13%0-1 13%0-0 11%1-0 11%1-2 8%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals DAN 1.01 · DEF 1.20

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓ 0–1 goals67%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals42% ±5
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals21%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: DAN 30% · DEF 36%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
28%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee Jose Burgos · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
F. Rodríguezexpected 84'17%
S. Felipeexpected 90'14%
O. Riveroexpected 54'13%
P. Silesexpected 90'11%
J. Alvarezexpected 87'10%
F. Bernalexpected 52'10%
C. Grossmüllerexpected 90'9%
A. Duarteexpected 31'9%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

26 March 2026: the Primera División match ended Danubio 0-0 Defensor Sporting.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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