Wanderers 0-1 Progreso
Model accuracy
Locked 25 Oct 06:08The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match result
calibrated · slope 1.00Why this estimate? 5 factors
- Progreso savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %19 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Progreso hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %13 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- İç saha avantajı: Wanderers'ın gol beklentisini %7 artırıyor
- Wanderers hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %5 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Wanderers savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %4 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Estimate history
72 h → kick-offThe record uses the last estimate locked before kick-off; live estimates are not scored.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Score
calibrated · slope 1.00Predicted score 1-0 13%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.
Most likely scores (top 5)
Expected goals WAN 1.46 · PRO 0.97
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Total goals
calibrated · slope 0.98Most likely: 2 goals 26%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Goal lines
2+ · 3+ · 4+- 2+ goals✓ 0–1 goals71%
- 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals46% ±5
- 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals25%
On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Both teams score
calibrated · slope 1.00±3 · clean sheet: WAN 38% · PRO 23%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time result
calibrated · slope 1.02Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time / full-time
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Corners
no dataNot enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).
This match: WAN 5 · PRO 4
Cards
calibrated · slope 1.09Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).
Referee Mathias De Armas · the referee's card history is included.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
First goal
untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Player scoring chances
up to 8untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
25 October 2026: the Primera División match ended Wanderers 0-1 Progreso. Goals: nahuel lopez 59'. Match stats: possession Wanderers 56%, Progreso 44%; shots on target 2-3. The locked pre-match statistical model estimate gives Wanderers a 48% (80% interval 44%–55%) chance of winning; draw 27%, Progreso 25%. The outcome call was a miss.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record