Wanderers vs Progreso

Match context

The venue is Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo, capacity 7,420. The referee is Mathias De Armas.

Form

Wanderers have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 (DWWLL), scoring 6 and conceding 8 — 1.2 / 1.6 per match. They took 3 points from 2 home matches in that run. They kept 1 clean sheet.

Progreso have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 (WWLDW), scoring 9 and conceding 6 — 1.8 / 1.2 per match. They took 4 points from 3 away matches in that run. They kept 1 clean sheet.

Head to head

In the last 5 meetings Wanderers won 3, Progreso won 1 and 1 ended level. Goals: Wanderers 10, Progreso 5.

The most recent meeting, on 11 July 2026, finished Wanderers 2-0 Progreso.

Key players and absentees

There is not yet enough player-level data for this match.

Model estimate

The statistical model estimate gives Wanderers a 49% (80% interval 45%–56%) chance of winning; draw 27%, Progreso 24%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (9%). Expected goals in the model: Wanderers 1.48, Progreso 0.95. Chance of 3+ goals: 47%; both teams to score: 50%. The estimate was locked on 23 October 2026 at 11:07 UTC; the last locked estimate before kick-off is scored in our public track record.