Progreso 0-2 Penarol
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match result
calibrated · slope 1.00Why this estimate? 5 factors
- Penarol savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %44 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Penarol hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %36 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Progreso savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %26 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- İç saha avantajı: Progreso'ın gol beklentisini %10 artırıyor
- Progreso hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %4 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Score
calibrated · slope 1.00Predicted score 0-3 7%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.
Most likely scores (top 5)
Expected goals PRO 0.84 · PEN 1.95
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Total goals
calibrated · slope 0.98Most likely: 2 goals 24%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Goal lines
2+ · 3+ · 4+- 2+ goals✓76%
- 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals52% ±6
- 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals30%
On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Both teams score
calibrated · slope 1.00±4 · clean sheet: PRO 14% · PEN 43%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time result
calibrated · slope 1.02Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time / full-time
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Corners
no dataNot enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).
Cards
calibrated · slope 1.09Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).
Referee A. Fernandez · the referee's card history is included.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
First goal
untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Player scoring chances
up to 8untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Progreso vs Penarol (Primera División, 4 April 2026) finished 0-2. Goals: L. Angulo 24', L. Angulo 39'.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record