Progreso 0-2 Penarol
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Starting XIs
Line-ups ›Match analysis
5 sections21:534 April 2026: the Primera División match ended Progreso 0-2 Penarol.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-2 at half-time. Penarol scored first, in the 24th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 24' L. Angulo → 0-1; 39' L. Angulo → 0-2.
Yellow cards: Progreso 1, Penarol 3.
Statistical comparison
Goals by half: 0-2 in the first, 0-0 in the second.
Standout players
Goal scorers: L. Angulo.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Progreso 15%, draw 21%, Penarol 64%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Progreso vs Penarol (Primera División, 4 April 2026) finished 0-2. Goals: L. Angulo 24', L. Angulo 39'.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.