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Progreso 1-0 Danubio

Primera División · Clausura - 4
Progreso
10
Full-timeHT 0-0
Danubio
90'Lopez
Parque Abraham Paladino, MontevideoReferee A. M. Matonte CabreraSat 29 Aug 2026, 17:00capacity 7,500

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
80%
Clearleague base 78%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Level at half-time
48%
Notableleague base 45%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · PRO 34% · X 30% · DAN 36%Predicted score 0-1 · Most likely: 1-1 13% · 0-1 13% · 1-0 12%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Progreso✓
34%±5
Draw
30%±2
Danubio
36%±5
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Progreso savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %22 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Danubio hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %19 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Progreso hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %18 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Progreso'ın gol beklentisini %9 artırıyor
  • Danubio savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %2 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 0-1 13%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 13%0-1 13%1-0 12%0-0 12%1-2 7%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals PRO 1.05 · DAN 1.10

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 27%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓ 0–1 goals66%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals40% ±5
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals20%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±3 · clean sheet: PRO 33% · DAN 35%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
33%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee A. M. Matonte Cabrera · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
F. Rodríguezexpected 84'18%
S. Felipeexpected 90'16%
R. Viegaexpected 76'15%
A. Rossoexpected 83'13%
P. Silesexpected 90'12%
G. Andradaexpected 90'11%
Alex Silvaexpected 90'11%
C. Grossmüllerexpected 90'10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

29 August 2026: the Primera División match ended Progreso 1-0 Danubio. Goals: N. Lopez 90'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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