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Piteå 3-1 Järfälla

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 23
Piteå
31
Full-timeHT 0-1
Järfälla
51'Johansson (P)56'Felicia90'Naslund
T (P)31'
Sun 20 Sept 2026, 15:30

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
80%
Clearleague base 84%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Both teams score: yes
59%±4
Notableleague base 62%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · PIT 43% · X 24% · JÄR 33%Predicted score 3-2 · Most likely: 1-1 11% · 2-1 9% · 1-2 8%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Piteå✓
43%±8
Draw
24%±2
Järfälla
33%±8
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Piteå hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %22 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Järfälla savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %21 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Piteå savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Piteå'ın gol beklentisini %9 artırıyor
  • Järfälla hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %8 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 3-2 4%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 11%2-1 9%1-2 8%1-0 7%2-2 6%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals PIT 1.68 · JÄR 1.45

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 3 goals 22%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓80%
  • 3+ goals✓58% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓36%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: PIT 24% · JÄR 19%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
13%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee not announced yet; league average used. The prediction updates once the referee is assigned.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Piteå beat Järfälla 3-1 in the Ettan - Norra on 20 September 2026. Goals: N. Medhin T 31' (pen), F. Johansson 51' (pen), G. Felicia 56', H. Naslund 90'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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