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Persijap vs Java United

Liga 1 · Matchweek 7
Persijap
15:00
Awaiting line-ups
Java United
Sat 24 Oct 2026, 15:00

Highlights

Locked 23 Oct 14:03

Up to 3 of the clearest estimates across all markets, calibration-checked. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
76%
Clearleague base 75%calibrated
Highlight 2
Java United win
50%±8
Notableleague base 31%calibrated
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · JEP 25% · X 25% · JUN 50%Most likely score 1-1 12%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Persijap
25%±6
Draw
25%±2
Java United
50%±8
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Persijap hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %33 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Java United hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %33 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Persijap'ın gol beklentisini %18 artırıyor
  • Persijap savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %8 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Java United savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %0 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Estimate history

72 h → kick-off
0255075100-72 h-48 h-24 h-12 hkick-offLocked · 10:00 · Persijap 43%Locked · 11:12 · Persijap 26%Locked · 13:07 · Persijap 25%Locked · 14:03 · Persijap 25%
PersijapDrawJava Unitedline-upsinjuryfinal estimateestimate row

The record uses the last estimate locked before kick-off; live estimates are not scored.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Predicted scores (top 5)

calibrated · slope 1.00
1-1 12%0-1 10%1-2 10%0-2 9%1-0 7%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals JEP 1.10 · JUN 1.66

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 24%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals76%
  • 3+ goals53% ±6
  • 4+ goals30%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: JEP 19% · JUN 33%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

model not live
No live estimate for this market yet.

The half-time model was calibrated in backtests; once live, home ahead / level / away ahead probabilities appear here. For now, data:

JEP 1st-half goals—
JUN 1st-half goals—
HT score—

Half-time / full-time

model not live
Once live, a 3×3 map of the 9 combinations (Home → Home, Draw → Away …) appears here.

Calibrated in backtests; the release decision is with the model team.

Corners

no model
No corner probabilities are produced.

There is no corner model yet; season data is shown instead.

Cards

experimental
Chance of a red card
15%
Yellow card and penalty markets are not live.

The red card probability comes from simulation and has no backtest: it is not scored and never a highlight.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Saturday 24 October 2026, 12:00 UTC: Persijap host Java United in the Liga 1 matchday 7. The statistical model estimate makes Java United favourites at 50% (80% interval 41%–58%); draw 25%, Persijap 25%. Most likely single score: 1-1 (12%). Chance of 3+ goals: 53%. The estimate was locked on 23 October 2026 at 11:03 UTC and will be scored publicly in our track record.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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