Persijap 1-1 Java United
Model accuracy
Locked 24 Oct 14:04The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Line-ups and absences
usually −60 minMatch analysis
5 sections03:3224 October 2026: the Liga 1 matchday 7 match ended Persijap 1-1 Java United.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-1 at half-time. Persijap levelled after the break. Java United scored first, in the 30th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 30' Ciro → 0-1; 60' Juan Douglas, assisted by Y. Sogodogo → 1-1.
VAR intervened 2 times; yellow cards: Persijap 2, Java United 0.
Statistical comparison
Goals by half: 0-1 in the first, 1-0 in the second.
Standout players
Goal scorers: Ciro, Juan Douglas.
How the model did
The locked pre-match statistical model estimate makes Java United favourites at 51% (80% interval 42%–59%); draw 25%, Persijap 24%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Expected goals in the model: Persijap 1.08, Java United 1.69. Chance of 3+ goals: 53%; both teams to score: 54%.
The model's most likely outcome was Java United win (51%); the actual result was a draw (25%). The outcome call was a miss. Its most likely score was 1-1, which was exactly right.
Scoring rule: each match is graded on the last estimate locked before kick-off, which cannot be changed afterwards.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
24 October 2026: the Liga 1 matchday 7 match ended Persijap 1-1 Java United. Goals: Ciro 30', Juan Douglas 60'. The locked pre-match statistical model estimate makes Java United favourites at 51% (80% interval 42%–59%); draw 25%, Persijap 24%. The outcome call was a miss, and the exact score was correct.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.