Penarol 1-1 Progreso
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match result
calibrated · slope 1.00Why this estimate? 5 factors
- Penarol hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %38 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Penarol savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %37 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Progreso savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %21 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Progreso hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %15 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- İç saha avantajı: Penarol'ın gol beklentisini %6 artırıyor
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Score
calibrated · slope 1.00Predicted score 3-0 10%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.
Most likely scores (top 5)
Expected goals PEN 2.14 · PRO 0.67
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Total goals
calibrated · slope 0.98Most likely: 2 goals 24%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Goal lines
2+ · 3+ · 4+- 2+ goals✓76%
- 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals53% ±5
- 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals31%
On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Both teams score
calibrated · slope 1.00±3 · clean sheet: PEN 51% · PRO 12%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time result
calibrated · slope 1.02Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time / full-time
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Corners
no dataNot enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).
This match: PEN 4 · PRO 2
Cards
calibrated · slope 1.09Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).
Referee M. De Armas · the referee's card history is included.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
First goal
untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Player scoring chances
up to 8untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
10 October 2026: the Primera División match ended Penarol 1-1 Progreso. Goals: N. Lopez 26', A. Hernandez 90'. Match stats: possession Penarol 61%, Progreso 39%; shots on target 6-6.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record