Penarol 1-1 Progreso
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Match analysis
5 sections23:04Penarol drew with Progreso 1-1 in the Primera División on 10 October 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-1 at half-time. Penarol levelled after the break. Progreso scored first, in the 26th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 26' N. Lopez → 0-1; 90' A. Hernandez → 1-1.
Yellow cards: Penarol 2, Progreso 0.
Statistical comparison
Shots 22-10 (6-6 on target); possession 61%-39%; corners 4-2.
Goals by half: 0-1 in the first, 1-0 in the second.
Standout players
Goal scorers: N. Lopez, A. Hernandez.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Penarol 72%, draw 18%, Progreso 10%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
10 October 2026: the Primera División match ended Penarol 1-1 Progreso. Goals: N. Lopez 26', A. Hernandez 90'. Match stats: possession Penarol 61%, Progreso 39%; shots on target 6-6.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.