Orgryte IS 1-1 Hammarby FF
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match result
calibrated · slope 1.00Why this estimate? 5 factors
- Orgryte IS savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %26 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Hammarby FF savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %33 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Hammarby FF hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %27 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Orgryte IS hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- İç saha avantajı: Orgryte IS'ın gol beklentisini %11 artırıyor
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Score
calibrated · slope 1.00Predicted score 1-4 4%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.
Most likely scores (top 5)
Expected goals ORG 1.06 · HAM 2.27
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Total goals
calibrated · slope 0.98Most likely: 3 goals 22%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Goal lines
2+ · 3+ · 4+- 2+ goals✓82%
- 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals61% ±5
- 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals39%
On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Both teams score
calibrated · slope 1.00±3 · clean sheet: ORG 10% · HAM 35%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time result
calibrated · slope 1.02Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time / full-time
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Corners
calibrated · slope 1.00This match: ORG 2 · HAM 8
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Cards
calibrated · slope 1.09Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).
Referee Fredrik Klitte · the referee's card history is included.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
First goal
untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Player scoring chances
up to 8untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Orgryte IS drew with Hammarby FF 1-1 in the Allsvenskan matchday 20 on 6 September 2026. Goals: W. Hofvander 11', V. Lind 18' (pen). Match stats: possession Orgryte IS 29%, Hammarby FF 71%; shots on target 1-10; expected goals (xG) 0.77-4.81.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record