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NK Ormoz 1-3 Rače

Cup · Round of 32
NK Ormoz
13
Full-timeHT 0-1
Rače
56'Korytskyi
Chukwurbuka43'Pipenbaher65'Cekovski90+2'
Sat 24 Oct 2026, 16:00

Model accuracy

Locked 24 Oct 14:06

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
Both teams score: yes
60%±7
Notableleague base 45%calibrated
✓ correct
Highlight 2
3+ goals
70%±12
Notableleague base 73%calibrated
✓ correct
Highlight 3
Rače win
63%±20
Notableleague base 58%calibrated
✓ correct
Match result · NOR 19% · X 18% · RAČ 63%Predicted score 2-5 · Most likely: 1-2 8% · 1-3 7% · 1-1 7%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
NK Ormoz
19%±14
Draw
18%±6
Rače✓
63%±20
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Uyarı: NK Ormoz'ın iç lig verisi henüz indirilmedi; lig gücü bilinmiyor
  • Uyarı: Rače'ın iç lig verisi henüz indirilmedi; lig gücü bilinmiyor
  • Uyarı: NK Ormoz için veri az (güç kestirimi belirsiz); tahmin lig ortalamasına güçlü biçimde çekildi
  • Uyarı: Rače için veri az (güç kestirimi belirsiz); tahmin lig ortalamasına güçlü biçimde çekildi
  • Rače savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %29 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Estimate history

72 h → kick-off
0255075100-72 h-48 h-24 h-12 hkick-offLocked · 10:00 · NK Ormoz 45%Locked · 11:12 · NK Ormoz 43%Locked · 13:07 · NK Ormoz 43%Locked · 14:03 · NK Ormoz 43%Locked · 18:19 · NK Ormoz 19%Locked · 20:39 · NK Ormoz 19%Locked · 23:49 · NK Ormoz 19%Locked · 06:10 · NK Ormoz 19%Locked · 09:29 · NK Ormoz 19%Locked · 14:06 · NK Ormoz 19%
NK OrmozDrawRačeline-upsinjuryfinal estimateestimate row
Live continuation · minute axis
02550751000'15'30'HT60'75'90'Unlocked · 4' · NK Ormoz 19%Unlocked · 8' · NK Ormoz 19%Unlocked · 11' · NK Ormoz 19%Unlocked · 13' · NK Ormoz 19%Unlocked · 16' · NK Ormoz 19%Unlocked · 18' · NK Ormoz 19%Unlocked · 20' · NK Ormoz 19%Unlocked · 22' · NK Ormoz 19%Unlocked · 24' · NK Ormoz 19%Unlocked · 26' · NK Ormoz 20%Unlocked · 28' · NK Ormoz 20%Unlocked · 30' · NK Ormoz 20%Unlocked · 32' · NK Ormoz 20%Unlocked · 34' · NK Ormoz 20%Unlocked · 35' · NK Ormoz 20%Unlocked · 37' · NK Ormoz 20%Unlocked · 39' · NK Ormoz 7%Unlocked · 41' · NK Ormoz 6%Unlocked · 43' · NK Ormoz 6%Unlocked · 45' · NK Ormoz 6%Unlocked · 49' · NK Ormoz 6%Unlocked · 53' · NK Ormoz 5%Unlocked · 57' · NK Ormoz 20%Unlocked · 62' · NK Ormoz 19%Unlocked · 65' · NK Ormoz 19%Unlocked · 68' · NK Ormoz 4%Unlocked · 71' · NK Ormoz 3%Unlocked · 75' · NK Ormoz 3%Unlocked · 76' · NK Ormoz 2%Unlocked · 79' · NK Ormoz 2%Unlocked · 85' · NK Ormoz 1%Unlocked · 87' · NK Ormoz 1%Unlocked · 89' · NK Ormoz 0%Unlocked · 91' · NK Ormoz 0%Unlocked · 93' · NK Ormoz 0%Unlocked · 94' · NK Ormoz 0%B. Chukwurbuka 43'Y. Korytskyi 56'G. Pipenbaher 65'D. Cekovski 90+2'

The record uses the last estimate locked before kick-off; live estimates are not scored.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 2-5 2%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-2 8%1-3 7%1-1 7%0-2 6%2-2 6%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals NOR 1.44 · RAČ 2.66

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 6+ goals 22%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓87%
  • 3+ goals✓70% ±12
  • 4+ goals✓49%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±7 · clean sheet: NOR 7% · RAČ 24%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

NK Ormoz lost to Rače 1-3 in the Cup on 24 October 2026. Goals: B. Chukwurbuka 43', Y. Korytskyi 56', G. Pipenbaher 65', D. Cekovski 90+2'. The locked pre-match statistical model estimate: Rače win 63% (80% interval 41%–80%), draw 18%, NK Ormoz win 19%. The outcome call was a hit.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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