NK Ormoz 1-3 Rače
Model accuracy
Locked 24 Oct 14:06The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Line-ups and absences
usually −60 minMatch analysis
5 sections20:25NK Ormoz lost to Rače 1-3 in the Cup on 24 October 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-1 at half-time. Rače scored first, in the 43rd minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 43' B. Chukwurbuka → 0-1; 56' Y. Korytskyi → 1-1; 65' G. Pipenbaher → 1-2; 90+2' D. Cekovski → 1-3.
Statistical comparison
Goals by half: 0-1 in the first, 1-2 in the second.
Standout players
Goal scorers: B. Chukwurbuka, Y. Korytskyi, G. Pipenbaher, D. Cekovski.
How the model did
The locked pre-match statistical model estimate: Rače win 63% (80% interval 41%–80%), draw 18%, NK Ormoz win 19%. Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Expected goals in the model: NK Ormoz 1.42, Rače 2.67. Chance of 3+ goals: 70%; both teams to score: 60%.
The model's most likely outcome was Rače win (63%); the actual result was Rače win (63%). The outcome call was a hit. Its most likely score was 1-2 (worth 2 points under our prediction game rules).
Scoring rule: each match is graded on the last estimate locked before kick-off, which cannot be changed afterwards.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
NK Ormoz lost to Rače 1-3 in the Cup on 24 October 2026. Goals: B. Chukwurbuka 43', Y. Korytskyi 56', G. Pipenbaher 65', D. Cekovski 90+2'. The locked pre-match statistical model estimate: Rače win 63% (80% interval 41%–80%), draw 18%, NK Ormoz win 19%. The outcome call was a hit.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.