Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby
Model accuracy
Match stats
Standouts: M. Targett 8.5 · P. Agyemang 7.9 · M. Whittaker 7.7
Match analysis
5 sections01:31Middlesbrough beat Derby 2-1 in the Championship matchday 18 on 29 November 2025.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-1 at half-time. Middlesbrough came from behind in the second half to win. Derby scored first, in the 2nd minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 2' P. Agyemang, assisted by L. Salvesen → 0-1; 75' M. Targett, assisted by H. Hackney → 1-1; 84' M. Whittaker, assisted by H. Hackney → 2-1.
Yellow cards: Middlesbrough 0, Derby 2.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Middlesbrough 1.53, Derby 0.92; shots 21-6 (4-1 on target); possession 74%-26%; corners 9-8; pass accuracy 85%-62%.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 0.61.
Goals by half: 0-1 in the first, 2-0 in the second.
Standout players
M. Targett was Middlesbrough's highest-rated player at 8.5 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 2 shots on target, 1 tackle, won 4 of 5 duels.
P. Agyemang was Derby's highest-rated player at 7.9 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 1 key pass, 1 tackle, won 7 of 14 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Middlesbrough vs Derby (Championship matchday 18, 29 November 2025) finished 2-1. Goals: P. Agyemang 2', M. Targett 75', M. Whittaker 84'. Match stats: possession Middlesbrough 74%, Derby 26%; shots on target 4-1; expected goals (xG) 1.53-0.92.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.