Middlesbrough 2-1 Birmingham
Model accuracy
Match stats
Standouts: D. Fry 8.0 · D. Gray 7.5 · L. Ayling 7.3
Match analysis
5 sections20:42Middlesbrough beat Birmingham 2-1 in the Championship matchday 15 on 8 November 2025.
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Result and story of the match
It was 2-1 at half-time. Middlesbrough scored first, in the 17th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 17' D. Fry, assisted by C. Brittain → 1-0; 29' D. Gray → 1-1; 45' H. Hackney, assisted by A. Morris → 2-1.
Yellow cards: Middlesbrough 1, Birmingham 1.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Middlesbrough 0.61, Birmingham 1.20; shots 8-13 (4-5 on target); possession 43%-57%; corners 3-5; pass accuracy 77%-82%.
Birmingham created the better chances, but the scoreline did not reflect it.
Goals by half: 2-1 in the first, 0-0 in the second.
Standout players
D. Fry was Middlesbrough's highest-rated player at 8.0 in 26 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 1 tackle, won 2 of 2 duels.
D. Gray was Birmingham's highest-rated player at 7.5 in 57 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 1 key pass, won 4 of 8 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Middlesbrough beat Birmingham 2-1 in the Championship matchday 15 on 8 November 2025. Goals: D. Fry 17', D. Gray 29', H. Hackney 45'. Match stats: possession Middlesbrough 43%, Birmingham 57%; shots on target 4-5; expected goals (xG) 0.61-1.20.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.