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Lincoln Red Imps FC 1-4 Twente

Conference League · League phase · MD 2
Lincoln Red Imps FC
1–4
FT
First half 1-2
Twente
38'Nano
Belt19'Weghorst24'Belt57'Weidmann90+3'
Match outcome probabilitypre-match forecast
Lincoln Red Imps FC
9%±4
Draw
17%±4
Twente
74%±8

±: confidence range

Locked: 22 Oct 21:57✓ hit · result✗ miss · score
Model saidTwente 74% · 0-2
ActualLIN 1-4 TWE

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Most likely scores
0-214%
0-112%
0-311%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

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Why this forecast?· The 5 factors that moved the model most

Model explanations are currently available in Turkish only.

Lig gücü farkı: Eredivisie, Premier Division'den daha güçlü; bu fark iki takımın gol beklentisi dengesini %90 deplasman lehine kaydırıyor
Lincoln Red Imps FC savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %117 daha iyi (zaman ağırlıklı gol+xG verisine göre)
Lincoln Red Imps FC hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %65 daha iyi (zaman ağırlıklı gol+xG verisine göre)
Twente savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %29 daha iyi (zaman ağırlıklı gol+xG verisine göre)
İç saha avantajı: Lincoln Red Imps FC'ın gol beklentisini %28 artırıyor (Avrupa kupası maçlarındaki iç saha etkisi)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

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Match summary

22 October 2026: the UEFA Conference League league phase matchday 2 match ended Lincoln Red Imps FC 1-4 Twente. Goals: T. van den Belt 19', W. Weghorst 24', Nano 38', T. van den Belt 57', D. Weidmann 90+3'. Match stats: possession Lincoln Red Imps FC 28%, Twente 72%; shots on target 1-7; expected goals (xG) 0.12-4.79. The locked pre-match statistical model estimate: Twente win 74% (80% interval 64%–80%), draw 17%, Lincoln Red Imps FC win 9%. The outcome call was a hit.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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