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Jonava 3-0 BFA

1 Lyga · Matchweek 27
Jonava
30
Full-timeHT 3-0
BFA
8'Benevicius10'Krot21'Benevicius
Fri 16 Oct 2026, 19:00

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
77%
Clearleague base 64%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Level at half-time
46%
Notableleague base 36%calibrated
retrospective miss
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · JON 29% · X 28% · BFA 43%Predicted score 0-1 · Most likely: 1-1 13% · 0-1 13% · 0-0 10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Jonava✓
29%±5
Draw
28%±2
BFA
43%±6
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Jonava hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %26 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • BFA hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Jonava savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %10 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • BFA savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %10 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Jonava'ın gol beklentisini %9 artırıyor

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 0-1 13%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 13%0-1 13%0-0 10%1-0 10%1-2 9%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals JON 1.02 · BFA 1.30

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓69%
  • 3+ goals✓44% ±4
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals23%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±3 · clean sheet: JON 27% · BFA 36%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Jonava beat BFA 3-0 in the 1 Lyga matchday 27 on 16 October 2026. Goals: N. Benevicius 8', R. Krot 10', N. Benevicius 21'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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