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Järfälla 1-0 Piteå

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 4
Järfälla
10
Full-timeHT 1-0
Piteå
10'T
Järfällavallen, JärfällaSun 26 Apr 2026, 17:00capacity 1,500

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
72%
Clearleague base 58%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Järfälla win
53%±12
Notableleague base 43%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · JÄR 53% · X 25% · PIT 22%Predicted score 2-0 · Most likely: 1-0 12% · 1-1 12% · 2-0 10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Järfälla✓
53%±12
Draw
25%±4
Piteå
22%±9
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Uyarı: Järfälla için veri az (güç kestirimi belirsiz); tahmin lig ortalamasına güçlü biçimde çekildi
  • Piteå hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %24 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Järfälla hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %18 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Järfälla savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %17 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Piteå savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %13 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 2-0 10%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-0 12%1-1 12%2-0 10%2-1 9%0-0 8%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals JÄR 1.66 · PIT 0.97

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 25%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓ 0–1 goals74%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals50% ±9
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals28%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±5 · clean sheet: JÄR 38% · PIT 19%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
11%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee not announced yet; league average used. The prediction updates once the referee is assigned.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Järfälla beat Piteå 1-0 in the Ettan - Norra on 26 April 2026. Goals: N. Medhin T 10'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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