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FA 2000 1-1 Naestved

2. Division · Matchweek 11
FA 2000
11
Full-timeHT 0-1
Naestved
90+4'Ravn
Rugaard38'
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 15:00

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
76%
Clearleague base 72%calibrated
retrospective hit
The model sees no second or third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · FA 35% · X 28% · NAE 37%Predicted score 0-1 · Most likely: 1-1 13% · 1-0 11% · 0-1 11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
FA 2000
35%±7
Draw✓
28%±2
Naestved
37%±7
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • FA 2000 hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %15 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: FA 2000'ın gol beklentisini %5 artırıyor
  • Naestved savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %5 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • FA 2000 savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %4 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Naestved hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %3 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 0-1 11%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 13%1-0 11%0-1 11%0-0 10%2-1 8%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals FA 1.17 · NAE 1.23

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓71%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals46% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals24%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: FA 30% · NAE 31%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

FA 2000 drew with Naestved 1-1 in the 2. Division matchday 11 on 10 October 2026. Goals: M. Rugaard 38', W. Ravn 90+4'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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Naestved · next match