Bolton vs Middlesbrough

Match context

The venue is Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton, capacity 28,723. The referee is Simon Hooper.

Form

Bolton have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 (WWLWD), scoring 9 and conceding 6 — 1.8 / 1.2 per match. They took 3 points from 2 home matches in that run. They kept 2 clean sheets.

Middlesbrough have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 (DDWWD), scoring 10 and conceding 8 — 2.0 / 1.6 per match. They took 4 points from 2 away matches in that run. They kept 1 clean sheet.

Head to head

In the last 5 meetings Bolton won 0, Middlesbrough won 5 and 0 ended level. Goals: Bolton 1, Middlesbrough 12.

The most recent meeting, on 29 August 2023, finished Bolton 1-3 Middlesbrough.

Key players and absentees

For Bolton, the standout performers in recent matches: Gaizka Larrazabal (1 goal in 5 matches, 2 assists, 2 shots on target, average rating 7.2); A. Ito (2 goals in 5 matches, 2 shots on target, average rating 6.9).

Recent form singles out A. Cozier-Duberry (1 goal in 5 matches, 3 assists, 8 shots on target, average rating 7.4) and W. Lankshear (4 goals in 5 matches, 8 shots on target, average rating 7.3) for Middlesbrough.

Bolton absentees: C. Forino-Joseph (doubtful), J. Nelson (unavailable).

Middlesbrough absentees: A. Jones (injured), D. Strelec (injured), R. Pukštas (injured).

Model estimate

The statistical model estimate points to an even match: Bolton 35%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 40%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Expected goals in the model: Bolton 1.32, Middlesbrough 1.57. Chance of 3+ goals: 55%; both teams to score: 58%. The estimate was locked on 23 October 2026 at 08:11 UTC; the last locked estimate before kick-off is scored in our public track record.