Birmingham 2-2 Middlesbrough
Championship · Matchweek 8Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: M. Arfsten 8.2 · L. Millar 7.6 · A. Phillips 7.5
Match analysis
5 sections22:06Birmingham drew with Middlesbrough 2-2 in the Championship matchday 8 on 19 September 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-1 at half-time. Birmingham levelled after the break. Middlesbrough scored first, in the 45th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 45' M. Arfsten, assisted by A. Cozier-Duberry → 0-1; 55' L. Millar, assisted by J. E. Solis Romero → 1-1; 59' R. McGree (own goal) → 1-2; 88' A. Malanda → 1-3.
Yellow cards: Birmingham 2, Middlesbrough 0.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Birmingham 1.23, Middlesbrough 2.14; shots 15-15 (5-4 on target); possession 48%-52%; corners 5-3; pass accuracy 74%-80%.
Middlesbrough created the better chances, but the scoreline did not reflect it.
Goals by half: 0-1 in the first, 2-1 in the second.
Standout players
L. Millar was Birmingham's highest-rated player at 7.6 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 3 shots on target, 1 tackle, won 4 of 11 duels.
M. Arfsten was Middlesbrough's highest-rated player at 8.2 in 86 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 1 key pass, 3 tackles, won 10 of 17 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Birmingham 39%, draw 26%, Middlesbrough 34%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
19 September 2026: the Championship matchday 8 match ended Birmingham 2-2 Middlesbrough. Goals: M. Arfsten 45', L. Millar 55', R. McGree 59' (o.g.), A. Malanda 88'. Match stats: possession Birmingham 48%, Middlesbrough 52%; shots on target 5-4; expected goals (xG) 1.23-2.14.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.