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Atletico Torque 2-1 Progreso

Primera División · Apertura - 15
Atletico Torque
21
Full-timeHT 2-1
Progreso
35'Silvera45'Silva
Lopez12'
Estadio Centenario, MontevideoReferee E. VarelaSun 10 May 2026, 22:00capacity 60,235

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
76%
Clearleague base 70%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Atletico Torque win
54%±7
Notableleague base 41%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · ATO 54% · X 24% · PRO 22%Predicted score 2-1 · Most likely: 1-1 11% · 1-0 10% · 2-1 10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Atletico Torque✓
54%±7
Draw
24%±2
Progreso
22%±5
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Progreso savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %22 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Progreso hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %11 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Atletico Torque hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %10 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Atletico Torque'ın gol beklentisini %9 artırıyor
  • Atletico Torque savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %5 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 2-1 10%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 11%1-0 10%2-1 10%2-0 9%0-0 6%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals ATO 1.77 · PRO 1.04

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 24%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓76%
  • 3+ goals✓53% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals31%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: ATO 35% · PRO 17%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
29%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee E. Varela · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
J. Zeballosexpected 67'23%
J. Cejasexpected 90'21%
M. Allendeexpected 90'17%
R. Viegaexpected 76'15%
N. Milesiexpected 82'12%
A. Rossoexpected 83'12%
J. Alvarezexpected 72'12%
G. Andradaexpected 90'11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

10 May 2026: the Primera División match ended Atletico Torque 2-1 Progreso. Goals: N. Lopez 12', F. Silvera 35', N. Da Silva 45'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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