Arouca 2-1 Maritimo
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match result
calibrated · slope 1.00Why this estimate? 5 factors
- Maritimo savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %21 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Arouca savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %17 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Maritimo hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %15 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- İç saha avantajı: Arouca'ın gol beklentisini %13 artırıyor
- Arouca hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %2 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Score
calibrated · slope 1.00Predicted score 2-1 11%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.
Most likely scores (top 5)
Expected goals ARO 1.80 · MAR 1.04
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Total goals
calibrated · slope 0.98Most likely: 2 goals 23%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Goal lines
2+ · 3+ · 4+- 2+ goals✓76%
- 3+ goals✓53% ±7
- 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals31%
On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Both teams score
calibrated · slope 1.00±5 · clean sheet: ARO 35% · MAR 16%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time result
calibrated · slope 1.02Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time / full-time
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Corners
calibrated · slope 1.00This match: ARO 2 · MAR 3
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Cards
calibrated · slope 1.09Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).
Referee Gustavo Correia · the referee's card history is included.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
First goal
untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Player scoring chances
up to 8untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
29 August 2026: the Primeira Liga matchday 4 match ended Arouca 2-1 Maritimo. Goals: M. Tejon 27', E. van Ee 44', I. Barbero 55'. Match stats: possession Arouca 52%, Maritimo 48%; shots on target 7-4; expected goals (xG) 1.65-0.67.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record