Arouca 2-1 Maritimo
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: E. van Ee 8.2 · Martín Tejón 8.2 · I. de Arruabarrena 7.3
Match analysis
5 sections22:5529 August 2026: the Primeira Liga matchday 4 match ended Arouca 2-1 Maritimo.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-1 at half-time. The decisive goals came after the interval. Maritimo scored first, in the 27th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 27' M. Tejon → 0-1; 44' E. van Ee, assisted by A. Trezza → 1-1; 55' I. Barbero, assisted by P. Gozalbez → 2-1.
Yellow cards: Arouca 2, Maritimo 1.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Arouca 1.65, Maritimo 0.67; shots 17-12 (7-4 on target); possession 52%-48%; corners 2-3.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 0.98.
Goals by half: 1-1 in the first, 1-0 in the second.
Standout players
E. van Ee was Arouca's highest-rated player at 8.2 in 79 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 1 key pass, won 5 of 6 duels.
Martín Tejón was Maritimo's highest-rated player at 8.2 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 2 shots on target, won 4 of 6 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Arouca 57%, draw 22%, Maritimo 21%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
29 August 2026: the Primeira Liga matchday 4 match ended Arouca 2-1 Maritimo. Goals: M. Tejon 27', E. van Ee 44', I. Barbero 55'. Match stats: possession Arouca 52%, Maritimo 48%; shots on target 7-4; expected goals (xG) 1.65-0.67.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.