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Wanderers 2-0 Progreso

Primera División · Torneo Intermedio - 5
Wanderers
20
Full-timeHT 1-0
Progreso
11'Zeballos47'Cosentino
Referee M. De ArmasSun 12 Jul 2026, 00:00

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
76%
Clearleague base 78%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Wanderers win
50%±6
Notableleague base 41%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · WAN 50% · X 27% · PRO 23%Predicted score 1-0 · Most likely: 1-0 13% · 1-1 12% · 2-0 10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Wanderers✓
50%±6
Draw
27%±2
Progreso
23%±4
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Progreso savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %23 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Progreso hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %11 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Wanderers hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %10 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Wanderers'ın gol beklentisini %7 artırıyor
  • Wanderers savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %6 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 1-0 13%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-0 13%1-1 12%2-0 10%0-0 10%2-1 9%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals WAN 1.48 · PRO 0.92

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓70%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals45% ±5
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals24%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: WAN 40% · PRO 23%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
30%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee M. De Armas · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
R. Lópezexpected 90'22%
M. Méndezexpected 62'17%
R. Viegaexpected 76'13%
D. Macalusoexpected 74'11%
A. Rossoexpected 83'11%
G. Andradaexpected 90'10%
Alex Silvaexpected 90'10%
P. Limaexpected 90'9%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Wanderers beat Progreso 2-0 in the Primera División on 11 July 2026. Goals: J. Zeballos 11', L. Cosentino 47'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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