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Team 1-0 Proxy

Second League · Matchweek 4
Team
10
Full-timeHT 0-0
Proxy
56'Malky
Fri 11 Sept 2026, 16:30

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
70%
Clearleague base 59%calibrated
retrospective miss
Highlight 2
Level at half-time
47%
Notableleague base 54%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · TEA 41% · X 28% · PRO 31%Predicted score 1-0 · Most likely: 1-1 13% · 1-0 12% · 0-0 10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Team✓
41%±12
Draw
28%±4
Proxy
31%±10
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Uyarı: Team için veri az (güç kestirimi belirsiz); tahmin lig ortalamasına güçlü biçimde çekildi
  • Proxy hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %14 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Team'ın gol beklentisini %12 artırıyor
  • Team savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %10 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Proxy savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %9 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 1-0 12%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 13%1-0 12%0-0 10%0-1 10%2-1 8%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals TEA 1.27 · PRO 1.07

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓ 0–1 goals70%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals44% ±10
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals23%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±6 · clean sheet: TEA 34% · PRO 28%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

11 September 2026: the Second League matchday 4 match ended Team 1-0 Proxy. Goals: R. El Malky 56'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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