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Super Nova 1-2 Auda

Virsliga · Matchweek 10
Super Nova
12
Full-timeHT 1-1
Auda
34'Lizunovs
Vergara45'Vergara85'
Referee A. GriscenkoFri 1 May 2026, 18:00

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
74%
Clearleague base 65%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Auda win
55%±7
Notableleague base 35%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · SNO 20% · X 25% · AUD 55%Predicted score 0-2 · Most likely: 0-1 13% · 1-1 12% · 0-2 11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Super Nova
20%±5
Draw
25%±3
Auda✓
55%±7
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Super Nova savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %18 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Super Nova hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %18 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Auda savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %22 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Auda hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Super Nova'ın gol beklentisini %7 artırıyor

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 0-2 11%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

0-1 13%1-1 12%0-2 11%1-2 10%0-0 8%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals SNO 0.89 · AUD 1.63

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 25%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓72%
  • 3+ goals✓48% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals26%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±3 · clean sheet: SNO 19% · AUD 41%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
17%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee A. Griscenko · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
M. Ošsexpected 90'20%
F. Garcíaexpected 89'11%
V. Lizunovsexpected 90'10%
E. Emsisexpected 90'6%
S. Vilkovsexpected 90'6%
R. Šitjakovsexpected 90'6%
J. Cīrulisexpected 90'6%
R. Iidaexpected 90'6%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Super Nova vs Auda (Virsliga matchday 10, 1 May 2026) finished 1-2. Goals: V. Lizunovs 34', J. Vergara 45', J. Vergara 85'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

Super Nova · next match
Auda · next match