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Slavia Sofia 1-1 Septemvri Sofia

First League · Matchweek 7
Slavia Sofia
11
Full-timeHT 0-0
Septemvri Sofia
46'Stoev
Malembana (OG)54'
Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, SofiaReferee M. PavlovFri 28 Aug 2026, 19:00capacity 25,556

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
73%
Clearleague base 69%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Slavia Sofia win
57%±7
Notableleague base 43%calibrated
retrospective miss
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · SLA 57% · X 25% · SSO 19%Predicted score 1-0 · Most likely: 1-0 13% · 1-1 12% · 2-0 11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Slavia Sofia
57%±7
Draw✓
25%±3
Septemvri Sofia
19%±5
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Septemvri Sofia savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %23 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Septemvri Sofia hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %16 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Slavia Sofia'ın gol beklentisini %17 artırıyor
  • Slavia Sofia hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %13 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Slavia Sofia savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %11 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 1-0 13%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-0 13%1-1 12%2-0 11%2-1 10%0-0 8%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals SLA 1.69 · SSO 0.91

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 25%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓73%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals49% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals27%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±3 · clean sheet: SLA 40% · SSO 18%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

calibrated · slope 1.00
Corner probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
23%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee M. Pavlov · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
K. Balovexpected 82'24%
Y. Guermoucheexpected 69'19%
I. Stefanovexpected 65'16%
E. Stoevexpected 73'13%
E. Ribeiroexpected 49'13%
I. Minchevexpected 69'13%
N. Fontaineexpected 41'11%
B. Fourrierexpected 72'10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Slavia Sofia drew with Septemvri Sofia 1-1 in the First League matchday 7 on 28 August 2026. Goals: E. Stoev 46', D. Malembana 54' (o.g.).

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

Slavia Sofia · next match
Septemvri Sofia · next match