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SJK 1-2 VPS

Veikkausliiga · Matchweek 11
SJK
12
Full-timeHT 1-0
VPS
38'Streng
Lindholm60'Smyth88'
OmaSP Stadion, SeinäjokiReferee Dennis AntamoWed 17 Jun 2026, 21:00capacity 6,000

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
80%
Clearleague base 78%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Both teams score: yes
57%±4
Notableleague base 57%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 3
SJK win
49%±7
Notableleague base 44%calibrated
retrospective miss
Match result · SJK 49% · X 24% · VAA 27%Predicted score 3-2 · Most likely: 1-1 11% · 2-1 9% · 1-0 8%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
SJK
49%±7
Draw
24%±2
VPS✓
27%±6
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • SJK hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %29 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: SJK'ın gol beklentisini %10 artırıyor
  • VPS savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %6 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • SJK savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %5 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • VPS hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %3 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 3-2 4%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 11%2-1 9%1-0 8%2-0 7%1-2 7%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals SJK 1.81 · VAA 1.28

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 3 goals 22%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓80%
  • 3+ goals✓58% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals35%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: SJK 28% · VAA 17%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

calibrated · slope 1.00
Corner probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
19%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee Dennis Antamo · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
L. Smythexpected 51'30%
K. Paananenexpected 88'28%
J. Strengexpected 65'24%
O. Tessilimiexpected 45'15%
Muhammed Susoexpected 50'14%
Kelvin Piresexpected 72'13%
M. Haukiojaexpected 61'11%
K. Kouassivi-Benissanexpected 57'10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

SJK vs VPS (Veikkausliiga matchday 11, 17 June 2026) finished 1-2. Goals: J. Streng 38', S. Lindholm 60', L. Smyth 88'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

VPS · next match