Salisbury 1-1 Dover
National League - South · National League South - 13Model accuracy
Locked 24 Oct 16:32The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Line-ups and absences
usually −60 minMatch analysis
5 sections07:42Salisbury drew with Dover 1-1 in the National League - South on 24 October 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-0 at half-time. Salisbury scored first, in the 48th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 48' N. Odokonyero (penalty) → 1-0; 90+2' E. Williams → 1-1.
Statistical comparison
Goals by half: 0-0 in the first, 1-1 in the second.
Standout players
Goal scorers: N. Odokonyero, E. Williams.
How the model did
The locked pre-match statistical model estimate gives Salisbury a 50% (80% interval 43%–56%) chance of winning; draw 23%, Dover 27%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Expected goals in the model: Salisbury 1.91, Dover 1.23. Chance of 3+ goals: 59%; both teams to score: 58%.
The model's most likely outcome was Salisbury win (50%); the actual result was a draw (23%). The outcome call was a miss. Its most likely score was 1-1, which was exactly right.
Scoring rule: each match is graded on the last estimate locked before kick-off, which cannot be changed afterwards.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Salisbury drew with Dover 1-1 in the National League - South on 24 October 2026. Goals: N. Odokonyero 48' (pen), E. Williams 90+2'. The locked pre-match statistical model estimate gives Salisbury a 50% (80% interval 43%–56%) chance of winning; draw 23%, Dover 27%. The outcome call was a miss, and the exact score was correct.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.