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Ramsgate 5-1 Whyteleafe

Non League Premier - Isthmian · Matchweek 6
Ramsgate
51
Full-timeHT 2-0
Whyteleafe
23'Paxman (P)34'Liburd55'Paxman69'Jones+1 goals
Cole70'
WW Martin Community Stadium, Ramsgate, KentMon 31 Aug 2026, 17:00capacity 3,000

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
85%
Clearleague base 82%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Ramsgate win
60%±11
Notableleague base 45%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 3
Both teams score: yes
61%±5
Notableleague base 59%calibrated
retrospective hit
Match result · RAM 60% · X 19% · WHY 20%Predicted score 4-2 · Most likely: 2-1 9% · 1-1 8% · 3-1 7%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Ramsgate✓
60%±11
Draw
19%±3
Whyteleafe
20%±8
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Ramsgate hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %28 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Whyteleafe savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %13 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Whyteleafe hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Ramsgate savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %6 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Ramsgate'ın gol beklentisini %5 artırıyor

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 4-2 3%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

2-1 9%1-1 8%3-1 7%2-0 7%2-2 6%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals RAM 2.38 · WHY 1.29

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 3 goals 21%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓85%
  • 3+ goals✓67% ±7
  • 4+ goals✓45%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±5 · clean sheet: RAM 28% · WHY 10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
L. Martinexpected 87'42%
T. Jadamaexpected 87'42%
J. Taylorexpected 90'14%
J. Greenexpected 90'14%
A. Youngexpected 90'14%
M. Westexpected 90'14%
J. Parterexpected 90'14%
B. Anidugbeexpected 76'12%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Ramsgate vs Whyteleafe (Non League Premier - Isthmian matchday 6, 31 August 2026) finished 5-1. Goals: A. Paxman 23' (pen), R. Liburd 34', A. Paxman 55', C. Jones 69', A. Cole 70', S. Oguwomoju 85'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

Ramsgate · next match
Whyteleafe · next match