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Proxy 2-0 Tersana

Second League · Matchweek 3
Proxy
20
Full-timeHT 1-0
Tersana
40'Doumbia62'Doumbia
Proxy Club Stadium, Abu El MatamirFri 4 Sept 2026, 16:30capacity 1,500

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
81%
Clearleague base 85%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Level at half-time
50%
Notableleague base 54%calibrated
retrospective miss
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · PRO 43% · X 30% · TER 27%Predicted score 0-0 · Most likely: 1-0 15% · 1-1 13% · 0-0 13%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Proxy✓
43%±8
Draw
30%±3
Tersana
27%±6
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Proxy savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Proxy hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Proxy'ın gol beklentisini %11 artırıyor
  • Tersana hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %7 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Tersana savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %1 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 0-0 13%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-0 15%1-1 13%0-0 13%0-1 11%2-0 9%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals PRO 1.20 · TER 0.90

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 27%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓65%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals39% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals19%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: PRO 41% · TER 30%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Proxy vs Tersana (Second League matchday 3, 4 September 2026) finished 2-0. Goals: A. Doumbia 40', A. Doumbia 62'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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Tersana · next match