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Progreso 2-1 Wanderers

Primera División · Apertura - 12
Progreso
21
Full-timeHT 1-0
Wanderers
8'Lopez89'Sanchez (P)
Luna77'
Parque Abraham Paladino, MontevideoReferee G. TejeraSat 18 Apr 2026, 19:00capacity 7,500

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
76%
Clearleague base 78%calibrated
retrospective hit
The model sees no second or third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · PRO 34% · X 28% · WAN 38%Predicted score 0-1 · Most likely: 1-1 13% · 0-1 11% · 1-0 10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Progreso✓
34%±6
Draw
28%±2
Wanderers
38%±6
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Progreso savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %23 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Wanderers hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %13 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Progreso hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %9 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Progreso'ın gol beklentisini %8 artırıyor
  • Wanderers savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %0 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 0-1 11%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 13%0-1 11%1-0 10%0-0 9%1-2 8%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals PRO 1.16 · WAN 1.25

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓71%
  • 3+ goals✓46% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals24%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: PRO 28% · WAN 31%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
27%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee G. Tejera · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
R. Lópezexpected 90'19%
R. Viegaexpected 76'17%
M. Méndezexpected 62'15%
A. Rossoexpected 83'14%
G. Andradaexpected 90'13%
Alex Silvaexpected 90'13%
M. Riqueroexpected 78'10%
D. Macalusoexpected 74'10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Progreso vs Wanderers (Primera División, 18 April 2026) finished 2-1. Goals: N. Lopez 8', J. Luna 77', D. Sanchez 89' (pen).

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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