Progreso 2-1 Racing Montevideo
Primera División · Clausura - 8Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Match analysis
5 sections18:59Progreso beat Racing Montevideo 2-1 in the Primera División on 26 September 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-0 at half-time. Progreso scored first, in the 20th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 20' M. Juambeltz → 1-0; 50' E. Da Silva → 1-1; 90' N. Lopez → 2-1.
Ivan Manzur (Racing Montevideo) was sent off in the 72nd minute; yellow cards: Progreso 2, Racing Montevideo 3.
Statistical comparison
Goals by half: 1-0 in the first, 1-1 in the second.
Standout players
Goal scorers: M. Juambeltz, E. Da Silva, N. Lopez.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Progreso 24%, draw 28%, Racing Montevideo 48%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
26 September 2026: the Primera División match ended Progreso 2-1 Racing Montevideo. Goals: M. Juambeltz 20', E. Da Silva 50', N. Lopez 90'.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.