Progreso 1-3 Cerro
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Match analysis
5 sections13:0713 September 2026: the Primera División match ended Progreso 1-3 Cerro.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-2 at half-time. Cerro scored first, in the 7th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 7' A. Cambon → 0-1; 14' A. Cambon → 0-2; 74' M. Juambeltz → 1-2; 88' J. Amaro → 1-3.
Yellow cards: Progreso 2, Cerro 3.
Statistical comparison
Goals by half: 0-2 in the first, 1-1 in the second.
Standout players
Goal scorers: A. Cambon, M. Juambeltz, J. Amaro.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Progreso 42%, draw 29%, Cerro 29%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
13 September 2026: the Primera División match ended Progreso 1-3 Cerro. Goals: A. Cambon 7', A. Cambon 14', M. Juambeltz 74', J. Amaro 88'.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.