Skip to content
TR

Progreso 0-1 Boston River

Primera División · Apertura - 7
Progreso
01
Full-timeHT 0-0
Boston River
Martinez49'
Parque Abraham Paladino, MontevideoReferee J. FeresSun 22 Mar 2026, 22:00capacity 7,500

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
78%
Clearleague base 78%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Level at half-time
46%
Notableleague base 45%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · PRO 36% · X 29% · BRİ 35%Predicted score 0-0 · Most likely: 1-1 13% · 1-0 12% · 0-1 11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Progreso
36%±7
Draw
29%±2
Boston River✓
35%±7
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Progreso savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %26 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Boston River hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %17 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Progreso'ın gol beklentisini %12 artırıyor
  • Progreso hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %5 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Boston River savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %4 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 0-0 10%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 13%1-0 12%0-1 11%0-0 10%2-1 8%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals PRO 1.16 · BRİ 1.14

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓ 0–1 goals69%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals44% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals22%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: PRO 32% · BRİ 31%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
27%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee J. Feres · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
R. Viegaexpected 76'16%
A. Rossoexpected 83'14%
G. Andradaexpected 90'13%
Alex Silvaexpected 90'13%
G. Lopezexpected 59'12%
M. Riqueroexpected 78'10%
V. Adamoexpected 59'9%
F. Plateroexpected 90'7%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Progreso vs Boston River (Primera División, 22 March 2026) finished 0-1. Goals: F. Martinez 49'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

Progreso · next match
Boston River · next match