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Persija 1-0 Java United

Liga 1 · Matchweek 3
Persija
10
Full-timeHT 1-0
Java United
13'Abdulmanan
Referee C. CandraSat 19 Sept 2026, 15:00

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
82%
Clearleague base 75%calibrated
retrospective miss
Highlight 2
Persija win
66%±9
Notableleague base 44%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 3
Persija ahead at half-time
48%
Notableleague base 32%calibrated
retrospective hit
Match result · PER 66% · X 19% · JUN 15%Predicted score 4-1 · Most likely: 2-0 10% · 2-1 10% · 1-1 8%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Persija✓
66%±9
Draw
19%±4
Java United
15%±5
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Persija savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %55 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Persija hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %39 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Java United hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %34 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Persija'ın gol beklentisini %18 artırıyor
  • Java United savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %5 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 4-1 4%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

2-0 10%2-1 10%1-1 8%1-0 8%3-1 8%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals PER 2.33 · JUN 1.01

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 3 goals 22%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓ 0–1 goals82%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals62% ±8
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals40%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±5 · clean sheet: PER 36% · JUN 10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
22%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee C. Candra · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Persija beat Java United 1-0 in the Liga 1 matchday 3 on 19 September 2026. Goals: A. Abdulmanan 13'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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Java United · next match