Penarol 1-1 Defensor Sporting
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Match analysis
5 sections03:58Penarol drew with Defensor Sporting 1-1 in the Primera División on 4 May 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-0 at half-time. Defensor Sporting levelled after the break. Penarol scored first, in the 19th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 19' L. Umpierrez → 1-0; 68' B. Montenegro → 1-1.
Washington Aguerre (Penarol) was sent off in the 90th minute; yellow cards: Penarol 6, Defensor Sporting 2.
Statistical comparison
Goals by half: 1-0 in the first, 0-1 in the second.
Standout players
Goal scorers: L. Umpierrez, B. Montenegro.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Penarol 49%, draw 29%, Defensor Sporting 23%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
4 May 2026: the Primera División match ended Penarol 1-1 Defensor Sporting. Goals: L. Umpierrez 19', B. Montenegro 68'.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.