Parma 1-1 Monza
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: E. Corvi 8.2 · Jay Robinson 8.2 · S. Lontani 7.9
Match analysis
5 sections11:326 September 2026: the Serie A matchday 3 match ended Parma 1-1 Monza.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-1 at half-time. Parma levelled after the break. Monza scored first, in the 38th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 38' J. Robinson, assisted by R. Mangas → 0-1; 60' S. Lontani → 1-1.
Yellow cards: Parma 2, Monza 2.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Parma 0.73, Monza 1.72; shots 7-16 (3-5 on target); possession 46%-54%; corners 6-3.
Monza created the better chances, but the scoreline did not reflect it.
Goals by half: 0-1 in the first, 1-0 in the second.
Standout players
E. Corvi was Parma's highest-rated player at 8.2 in 90 minutes: 4 saves.
Jay Robinson was Monza's highest-rated player at 8.2 in 81 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 1 tackle, won 8 of 12 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Parma 36%, draw 30%, Monza 34%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Parma drew with Monza 1-1 in the Serie A matchday 3 on 6 September 2026. Goals: J. Robinson 38', S. Lontani 60'. Match stats: possession Parma 46%, Monza 54%; shots on target 3-5; expected goals (xG) 0.73-1.72.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.