Skip to content
TR

Otrant-Olympic 0-3 Dečić

First League · Matchweek 4
Otrant-Olympic
03
Full-timeHT 0-0
Dečić
Braunovic66'Radusinovic75'Stanisavic89'
Stadion Olympic, UlcinjSun 23 Aug 2026, 18:30capacity 1,500

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
78%
Clearleague base 78%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Level at half-time
47%
Notableleague base 47%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · OOL 36% · X 29% · DEC 36%Predicted score 0-1 · Most likely: 1-1 13% · 0-1 11% · 1-0 11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Otrant-Olympic
36%±7
Draw
29%±2
Dečić✓
36%±7
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Dečić savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %23 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Otrant-Olympic hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %18 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Otrant-Olympic savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %10 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Otrant-Olympic'ın gol beklentisini %9 artırıyor
  • Dečić hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %0 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 0-1 11%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 13%0-1 11%1-0 11%0-0 10%1-2 8%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals OOL 1.15 · DEC 1.15

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓69%
  • 3+ goals✓44% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals22%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: OOL 32% · DEC 32%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
11%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee not announced yet; league average used. The prediction updates once the referee is assigned.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
P. Sekulovićexpected 85'16%
V. Strikovićexpected 78'16%
A. Bajovićexpected 74'15%
Ž. Tomaševićexpected 90'9%
J. Drešajexpected 90'9%
I. N'Diayeexpected 58'7%
L. Ujkajexpected 90'5%
R. Đejajexpected 81'5%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

23 August 2026: the First League matchday 4 match ended Otrant-Olympic 0-3 Dečić. Goals: N. Braunovic 66', B. Radusinovic 75', S. Stanisavic 89'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

Otrant-Olympic · next match
Dečić · next match