Oddevold 1-2 IFK Varnamo
Superettan · Matchweek 25Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match result
calibrated · slope 1.00Why this estimate? 5 factors
- IFK Varnamo savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %13 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- İç saha avantajı: Oddevold'ın gol beklentisini %13 artırıyor
- Oddevold savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %11 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Oddevold hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %3 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- IFK Varnamo hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %2 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Score
calibrated · slope 1.00Predicted score 2-1 10%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.
Most likely scores (top 5)
Expected goals ODD 1.83 · VAR 1.12
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Total goals
calibrated · slope 0.98Most likely: 2 goals 23%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Goal lines
2+ · 3+ · 4+- 2+ goals✓78%
- 3+ goals✓56% ±5
- 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals33%
On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Both teams score
calibrated · slope 1.00±3 · clean sheet: ODD 33% · VAR 16%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time result
calibrated · slope 1.02Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time / full-time
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Corners
no dataNot enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).
This match: ODD 10 · VAR 5
Cards
calibrated · slope 1.09Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).
Referee Farouk Nehdi · the referee's card history is included.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
First goal
untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Player scoring chances
up to 8untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Oddevold vs IFK Varnamo (Superettan matchday 25, 19 September 2026) finished 1-2. Goals: V. Claesson 23', M. Antonsson 46', A. Motaraghebjafarpour 77' (o.g.). Match stats: possession Oddevold 59%, IFK Varnamo 41%; shots on target 6-7.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record