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MO Constantine vs US Chaouia

Ligue 2 · Matchweek 9
MO Constantine
17:00
Awaiting line-upsStade Ben-Abdelmalek-Ramdhan
US Chaouia
Stade Ben-Abdelmalek-Ramdhan, ConstantineSat 7 Nov 2026, 17:00capacity 6,000

Highlights

Locked 6 Nov 06:56

Up to 3 of the clearest estimates across all markets, calibration-checked. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
79%
Clearleague base 81%calibrated
Highlight 2
Level at half-time
49%
Notableleague base 49%calibrated
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · CON 41% · X 29% · USC 30%Predicted score 0-0 · Most likely: 1-0 13% · 1-1 13% · 0-0 11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
MO Constantine
41%±7
Draw
29%±2
US Chaouia
30%±6
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • İç saha avantajı: MO Constantine'ın gol beklentisini %30 artırıyor
  • US Chaouia hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %24 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • US Chaouia savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %17 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • MO Constantine savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %3 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • MO Constantine hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %3 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Estimate history

72 h → kick-off
0255075100-72 h-48 h-24 h-12 hkick-offLocked · 06:25 · MO Constantine 41%Locked · 06:56 · MO Constantine 41%
MO ConstantineDrawUS Chaouialine-upsinjuryfinal estimateestimate row

The record uses the last estimate locked before kick-off; live estimates are not scored.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 0-0 11%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-0 13%1-1 13%0-0 11%0-1 11%2-1 8%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals CON 1.21 · USC 1.00

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals67%
  • 3+ goals42% ±5
  • 4+ goals21%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: CON 37% · USC 30%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

MO Constantine face US Chaouia in the Ligue 2 matchday 9 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC. Venue: Stade Ben-Abdelmalek-Ramdhan, Constantine. The statistical model estimate makes MO Constantine favourites at 41% (80% interval 35%–48%); draw 29%, US Chaouia 30%. Most likely single score: 1-0 (13%). Chance of 3+ goals: 42%. The estimate was locked on 6 November 2026 at 03:56 UTC and will be scored publicly in our track record.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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