Millwall 2-3 Derby
Championship · Matchweek 38Model accuracy
Match stats
Standouts: L. Sibley 9.5 · M. Smith 7.6 · J. Böðvarsson 7.3
Match analysis
5 sections01:0520 June 2020: the Championship matchday 38 match ended Millwall 2-3 Derby.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-1 at half-time. The decisive goals came after the interval. Millwall scored first, in the 15th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 15' M. Smith, assisted by S. Ferguson → 1-0; 26' L. Sibley, assisted by J. Bogle → 1-1; 71' L. Sibley, assisted by M. Waghorn → 1-2; 90' L. Sibley, assisted by C. Forsyth → 1-3; 90+3' J. Böðvarsson → 2-3.
Yellow cards: Millwall 0, Derby 2.
Statistical comparison
Shots 12-12 (4-5 on target); possession 37%-63%; corners 6-3; pass accuracy 71%-85%.
Goals by half: 1-1 in the first, 1-2 in the second.
Standout players
M. Smith was Millwall's highest-rated player at 7.6 in 74 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 2 key passes, 2 tackles, won 10 of 13 duels.
L. Sibley was Derby's highest-rated player at 9.5 in 90 minutes: 3 goals, 5 shots on target, 1 tackle, won 4 of 9 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Millwall vs Derby (Championship matchday 38, 20 June 2020) finished 2-3. Goals: M. Smith 15', L. Sibley 26', L. Sibley 71', L. Sibley 90', J. Böðvarsson 90+3'. Match stats: possession Millwall 37%, Derby 63%; shots on target 4-5.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.