Millwall 1-1 Derby
Model accuracy
Match stats
Standouts: E. Cashin 7.9 · J. Yates 7.5 · D. Watmore 7.3
Match analysis
5 sections05:5819 October 2024: the Championship matchday 10 match ended Millwall 1-1 Derby.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-0 at half-time. Derby scored first, in the 78th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 78' J. Yates → 0-1; 85' M. Ivanović, assisted by R. Esse → 1-1.
Yellow cards: Millwall 2, Derby 0.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Millwall 1.94, Derby 0.68; shots 16-5 (6-1 on target); possession 54%-46%; corners 9-5; pass accuracy 65%-61%.
Millwall created the better chances, but the scoreline did not reflect it.
Goals by half: 0-0 in the first, 1-1 in the second.
Standout players
D. Watmore was Millwall's highest-rated player at 7.3 in 65 minutes: 1 key pass, 1 tackle, won 6 of 11 duels.
E. Cashin was Derby's highest-rated player at 7.9 in 90 minutes: 1 key pass, 4 tackles, won 16 of 19 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
19 October 2024: the Championship matchday 10 match ended Millwall 1-1 Derby. Goals: J. Yates 78', M. Ivanović 85'. Match stats: possession Millwall 54%, Derby 46%; shots on target 6-1; expected goals (xG) 1.94-0.68.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.