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Masar 1-0 Proxy

Second League · Matchweek 6
Masar
10
Full-timeHT 1-0
Proxy
45+4'Bliya
Thu 24 Sept 2026, 16:30

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
75%
Clearleague base 59%calibrated
retrospective miss
Highlight 2
Masar win
61%±8
Notableleague base 34%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · MAS 61% · X 23% · PRO 17%Predicted score 2-0 · Most likely: 1-0 13% · 2-0 12% · 1-1 11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Masar✓
61%±8
Draw
23%±4
Proxy
17%±5
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Masar hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %59 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Masar savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Masar'ın gol beklentisini %11 artırıyor
  • Proxy savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %9 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Proxy hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %8 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 2-0 12%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-0 13%2-0 12%1-1 11%2-1 10%0-0 7%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals MAS 1.83 · PRO 0.84

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 25%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓ 0–1 goals75%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals51% ±8
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals29%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±5 · clean sheet: MAS 43% · PRO 16%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Masar vs Proxy (Second League matchday 6, 24 September 2026) finished 1-0. Goals: S. Bliya 45+4'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

Masar · next match
Proxy · next match